INEC Results Come Under Fire Amid Allegations of Manipulation and Violence
Benin City, September 21, 2024: The much-anticipated Edo State governorship election concluded on Saturday, but the aftermath has been marred by allegations of electoral malpractices, voter intimidation, and inconsistencies in results. Leading election monitoring organization Yiaga Africa, renowned for its rigorous and data-driven methodology, has released a comprehensive report raising concerns over the integrity of the electoral process.
Yiaga Africa, which deployed its highly respected Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology, provided a detailed breakdown of the election day’s events, calling into question the credibility of the official results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
The PRVT Methodology: How Yiaga Africa Ensured Rigorous Monitoring
Yiaga Africa’s deployment of over 300 stationary and 25 roving observers across all 18 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Edo State demonstrated its commitment to transparency and accountability. The PRVT methodology, which has proven effective in two presidential elections and sixteen off-cycle governorship elections, allowed Yiaga Africa to independently monitor the quality of the election process and verify the accuracy of results.
Their observers were not only stationed at polling units but were also present at state and LGA results collation centers, ensuring comprehensive coverage and a real-time understanding of the unfolding events. However, despite this meticulous monitoring, the election day was fraught with logistical challenges, violence, and inconsistencies that have now cast a shadow over the entire process.
Logistical Challenges and Delays: A Rocky Start
The report issued by Yiaga Africa highlighted significant logistical challenges that affected the smooth running of the electoral process. Inadequate planning and the failure to provide sufficient transportation for ad hoc staff and election materials led to delays in the commencement of accreditation and voting across various polling units. This, compounded by the absence of accompanying security personnel, further exacerbated the situation.
These delays not only frustrated voters but also compromised the efficiency and integrity of the process, raising early concerns about the overall conduct of the election.
Acts of Violence: Thugs and Hoodlums Disrupt Election Day
In an alarming turn of events, the election was marred by acts of violence and intimidation, with political thugs and hoodlums disrupting voting and the collation of results in several areas. Reports of attacks on voters and election officials, coupled with incidents of arson and property destruction, severely undermined the credibility of the election. Yiaga Africa expressed its condolences to those who suffered injuries and loss of valuable property and called on security agencies to thoroughly investigate these cases.
This violence not only threatened the lives of citizens and polling officials but also jeopardized the democratic process, preventing many voters from exercising their right to participate in a free and fair election.
Inconsistencies in INEC’s Official Results: A Blow to Electoral Integrity
Yiaga Africa’s most damning revelation centered on inconsistencies in the official results announced by INEC. Utilizing reports from its representative random sample of polling units, the organization was able to project the expected vote shares for each political party within a narrow margin of error.
According to INEC, the All Progressive Congress (APC) secured 51.1% of the votes, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) received 43.3%, and the Labour Party garnered 4.0%. However, Yiaga Africa’s statistical analysis exposed inconsistencies in the official results announced for key LGAs, such as Oredo, Egor, and Esan West. The figures for APC and PDP in these areas fell outside Yiaga Africa’s PRVT estimates, indicating that results may have been manipulated during the collation process.
These discrepancies raise serious questions about the integrity of the electoral process and cast a long shadow over the credibility of INEC’s official results. The manipulation of figures during the collation process not only violates the principles of free and fair elections but also erodes public trust in Nigeria’s democratic institutions.
Turnout and Voter Resilience: A Disappointing Decline
Despite high PVC (Permanent Voter Card) collection rates in the lead-up to the election, voter turnout on election day was disappointingly low. According to Yiaga Africa, the turnout was estimated to be between 20.9% and 24.1%, with the official INEC figure standing at 22.4%. This represents a decline from the 27% turnout observed in the 2020 Edo governorship election.
This low turnout suggests that many eligible voters chose to stay away from the polls, potentially due to fear of violence, logistical challenges, or disillusionment with the electoral process. Yiaga Africa commended the resilience of those who braved the rain, delays, and other obstacles to exercise their civic rights, but the organization also emphasized the need for reforms to encourage greater voter participation in future elections.
Integrity and Impartiality in Question: A Call for Accountability
Yiaga Africa’s analysis of the election was based on three key parameters: the resilience test, the impartiality test, and the integrity test. While the election passed the resilience test in terms of voters’ determination to participate despite challenges, it failed the impartiality and integrity tests.
The organization cited incidents of intimidation, interference by security personnel during the collation process, and manipulation of results by some INEC officials as key factors that undermined the impartiality of the election. Yiaga Africa noted that the denial of access to accredited observers and party agents at collation centers raised doubts about the transparency of the process, particularly in LGAs such as Ikpoba/Okha, Etsako West, Egor, and Oredo.
The integrity of the election was further compromised by the manipulation of results at the collation stage, which contradicts INEC guidelines and the provisions of the Electoral Act. This manipulation, Yiaga Africa argued, severely undermines the credibility of the entire electoral process and represents a grave threat to Nigeria’s democracy.
Recommendations: Yiaga Africa’s Call to Action
In light of these findings, Yiaga Africa has issued a series of recommendations to restore integrity to Nigeria’s electoral process:
- Investigation and Prosecution: Immediate investigation and prosecution of polling officials and collation officers involved in results manipulation.
- Clarification of Results: INEC should urgently address inconsistencies in the results, particularly for Oredo, Egor, Esan West, and other affected LGAs.
- Guidelines for Reviewing Results: INEC should issue clear guidelines on how to review declarations and returns that are contrary to electoral laws, including procedures for submitting complaints.
- Electoral Reform: The National Assembly should amend the Electoral Act to make electronic transmission of results mandatory, ensuring polling unit-level results are legally recognized and protected.
Conclusion: A Call for Electoral Reforms
The Edo State governorship election, once seen as an opportunity to showcase Nigeria’s democratic maturity, has instead exposed serious flaws that require urgent attention. As Yiaga Africa’s report makes clear, fundamental electoral reforms are necessary to restore public confidence in the democratic process and ensure that future elections are conducted with transparency, fairness, and integrity.
As the dust settles on the 2024 Edo governorship election, one thing is clear: Nigeria’s journey towards a truly democratic society continues, but it cannot succeed without the active participation of all stakeholders in demanding and implementing meaningful electoral reforms.
Signed:
Dr. Aisha Abdullahi
Chair of the 2024 Edo Election Mission
Samson Itodo
Executive Director, Yiaga Africa
